What Kazakhstan should expect in the next 25 years?
What Kazakhstan should expect in the next 25 years? With forecasts about the scenario of development of the country for the next 25 years the chairman of institute across Central Asia and the Caucasus of J. Hopkins university Frederik Starr (USA) delivered a speech at the international conference in honor of the 25 anniversary of Kazakhstan independence, Bnews.kz correspondent reported.
"Kazakhstan went a long way in 25 years of the sovereignty. The country leaders can note impressive economic development, stability, the strengthened sovereignty and respect of the Kazakhstan brand on the international scene. Looking for 25 years ahead and further, the Kazakhstan authorities created the ambitious concept on transformation of the country into one of the most developed states in the world. On the forthcoming way there will be old problems and, undoubtedly new ones will appear. Having started the program of further development, Kazakhstan will face several major social, economic, political and international realities," F. Starr told.
According to the conclusions of the expert, the population of Kazakhstan will grow by 20% in the next 25 years, but the ratio of dependents to able-bodied population, most likely will increase twice that will demand further economic development. Sustained economic growth will promote further acceleration of process of an urbanization, and by 2041 70% of the population can live in the city area.
Besides, as F. Starr writes, the information sphere of Kazakhstan, unlike its international relations, remains rather isolated, and Russia is the main external source of information for the ordinary citizen.
"In order that the population of Kazakhstan had such information range which would correspond to the created global role of the country, it is necessary to apply multivector approach to the sphere of information as well. It is that area which is substantially ignored by the western powers, and at the same time that sphere where it would be possible to make a lot of things to connect Kazakhstan and its region with more general world community in all its complexity," the expert considers.
At the same time the researcher offered that long-term economic development will demand transformation of economic structure and a management system of Kazakhstan. According to him, Kazakhstan showed vulnerability to negative changes in world economy, and the near future it will probably be difficult.
"The capability to react to decrease in a global oil demand in advance can determine the economic future of the country. The agricultural industry is one of the key directions in this respect. Really, Kazakhstan has potential to become a granary of Eurasia. The sector of agricultural industry needs radical reorganization," F. Starr added.
The expert paid much attention in the report to integration ways of Kazakhstan.
"To provide formation of Kazakhstan and other part of Central Asia as the overland bridge connecting China and India to Europe, Kazakhstan shall strengthen intraregional contacts and interaction at all levels. Having taken the Agreement on strategic partnership signed by presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in 2013 as a basis," F. Starr noted.
At the same time on a number of the conclusions the researcher predicted that in a subsequent period till 2041 Kazakhstan and its region will be inevitably and strongly subject to globalization, and also cross-currents in relation to it.