Foreign experts: The world economy needs replacement of dollar
The Danish experts during a videoconference in Almaty, shared an opinion on influence of Donald Trump’s new policy on world economy, strengthening of tenge and about whether there is a replacement to dollar for today, BNews.kz correspondent reports.
Forecasts for the world foreign exchange market were read by main currency strategist of Saxo Bank investment bank John Hardy and head of department of strategy of Saxo Bank in the commodity and raw market Ole Slot Hansen. According to experts, Donald Trump’s new fiscal policy is directed to stimulation of economy growth that cannot be reflected in a situation in the world.
"The dollar remains world currency, there is a lot of stress around it not only because the currency is used in the USA where growth is planned, but also all round the world. When the federal allowance removes new monetary policy, it "rolls out" policy for the whole world. Certainly, there is risk. If Trump excessively stimulates growth of the American economy, it will be reflected in the most part of the world. So there is need for replacement of dollar, but, unfortunately, there is no such currency for today," John Hardy considers.
As to tenge, the Danish experts noted that the currency is stable and similar to a situation in the market of the neighboring Russia where the ruble continues to become stronger.
"The situation today is when the ruble approached the potential perhaps to strengthening, the same situations happens today to the Kazakhstani tenge as Kazakhstan carried out devaluation of the currency. When the exchange rate becomes higher, for example if oil raises for several dollars for barrel then it will lead to strengthening of tenge," John Hardy said.
According to the expert, now the equilibrium point of tenge is 325 tenge for dollar, but you should not forget that in Kazakhstan inflation and interest rates are much higher.
"It means that there will be a certain drift in the lower party eventually. If oil returns on a certain level and will find the balance, then the exchange rate will be at the level of 350 tenge by the end of 2017. But there are risks that the jump will be for 400 if there is a reduction of prices of oil," the expert said.