Experts told what would happen to tenge
The national currency has gone down by five tenges following the morning session at KASE.
The dollar to the tenge on Thursday, August 9, has sharply gone up. Thus, at the morning trading session at the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange the dollar has reached 354 tenges and strengthened by 5 tenges. The volume of trading has increased and made up 467.6 million dollars, BNews.kz correspondent reports.
According to kurs.kz, at the majority number of exchange offices a dollar can be sold for 355 tenges and tbought for 356 tenges. In Russia, on morning August 9, the fall of the ruble to the dollar and euro has gone on. After the opening of the trading session, the dollar has gone up by 70 kopecks, up to 66.25 rubles. The ruble has had a bigger fall to the European currency, the euro has exceeded 77 rubles.
The experts believe that the current fall of the ruble is the result of the statement of US President Donald Trump about the anti-Russian sanctions.
"I recommend the citizens to covert their savings to dollars, because the situation on the Russian market will anyway reflect on us. It is certain that in the near months, the USA could impose a new package of sanctions against Russia, that will lead to the fall of the ruble, and, as a result, that of the tenge. Because Russia is the main trade partner for us. Therefore, the only way is to convert money to dollars. One should understand that short-term changes can occur. There are many causes for negative. Firstly, there are sanctions imposed by the USA to Russia. Secondly, the price for pertoleum that is connected with the trade war of the USA and China. No body knows whether these states will agree on something, and on what conditions. The third one is the sanctions towards Iran. Not taking into account that the petroleum producing states can change the situation. There is a suggestion that if the number of oil rigs exceeds 100 units in oil producing states, then this will indicate that prices for oil will reduce," said Director at Ulagat business Group Marat Kairlenov.
The expert notes that during such a situation it is difficult to give forecasts on the tenge.
"No body has expected that the United States Department State would make such a statement. The same situation in the relation of the USA with China. Therefore, the situation is poorly predictable," he said.
Independent expert Aidar Alibayev noted that the fall of the tenge would go on.
"The tenge has no devaluation limit. Therefore, our unstable national currency can start to fall. It can occur fast, gradually, swiftly - it is a technical issue. There are several factors that have their own impact on the tenge. The first is the price for oil. Now it is not a bad one, but it goes down. The second one is the direct dependence on the Russian ruble. More than half of purchases of Kazakhstan are deeply connected with Russia. In the conditions of sanctions of the USA towards Russia, the tenge undergoes fluctuactions. I cannot say when all this will end, but the fall of the tenge will go on," said Aidar Alibayev.
Analyst at Forex Club group of companies Ivan Marchena underlined that the tenge, would, probably, fall down to the US dollar in terms of the correction after the increase of the tenge during several days and on the background of the decrease of world prices for oil.
"The fall of the tenge to the dollar began in terms of the correction after the increase of the tenge during several days. Also, the world prices for oil also influece on the tenge, that have felt down to 72 dollars per barrel of Brent after the publication of the data of the Ministry of Energy of the USA on oil reserves in the country. They have decreased over the week by 1.4 million barrels - to 407.4 million barrels. At the same time, analysts expected the greater reduction," said Ivan Marchena.
Senior expert of the Kazakhstan Institute of Strategic Studies Beket Kamaladinov also has an similar view on perspectives of the tenge.
"One should expect that the fall will go on. But, it will not be a swift one. Anti-Russian sanctions will continue that influence on the ruble, that, in turn, will fall in value to the dollar, and it will reflect on the tenge," said Beket Kamaladinov.
Director of the Centre for Applied Studies Talap Rakhim Oshakbayev said that the last fall of the tenge gave the ground to consider the return to a fixed board within which the tenge could fluctuate, and will give the currency confidence.
"Devaluation expactations after the switch to so-called 'free-floating' rate of the tenge have become constantly high, and they increase as a result of such fluctuations. As we said in 2015, the three-year unpredictable volatility of the tenge is the absolute evil. The monetary policy should be changed. I think that the return to the fixed rate based at least on the moderate underestimation in a meduim term can be more appropriate. The current rate of the tenge long ago absorbed the decrease in prices for oil," wrote Rakhim Oshakbayev on Facebook.