Kazakhstan's economy recovered from oil shock in 2014 - survey
The experts underline that it occurred owing to the floating currency rate, precautionary macroeconomic policy, rebound in oil prices and Russia's economic growth.
Nomura investment bank, in its report, noted Kazakhstan's economic recovery and elimination of fallouts from oil shock in 2014. It was informed on official Facebook of Kazakhstan's National Bank, Bnews.kz reports.
September 10, Normura investment bank, in its 'Introducing Damocles: Our early warning indicator of exchange rate crises', presented the analysis of emerging states' exposure to currency crises.
Damocles indicator was introduced on the base of which 30 emerging states were ranged in terms of their exposure to currency crises. 13 calculated indicators are analyzed, including those considering such macroeconomic indicators as the size of monetary reserves, external debt, import, the deficit of a budget and account of current payments and others, that together forecast a risk of a currency crisis in the country in the next 12 months.
According to Nomura's analysis, the seven emerging states are subject to big risks, including Argentina, Turkey, the South African Republic, Ukraine, Egypt, Sri-Lanka. These states have the great possibility of a currency crisis in a year. The analysis also defined a number of states with the lowest risks for currency turmoil, among them Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, and Kazakhstan.
The authors note the significant decrease in a risk for currency turmoil in Kazakhstan in connection to pre-crisis levels in the background of economic recovery and precautionary macroeconomic policy.
The researchers underline successful implementation of a policy of inflation targetting and floating currency rate that played a positive role in recovering the economy and eliminating negative effects from oil shock in 2014.
The analysis says that Kazakhstan's economy recovered from oil shock in 2014 owing to the floating currency rate, precautionary macroeconomic policy, rebound in oil prices and Russia's economic growth.