Tenge could strengthen against dollar by late August - Assosiation of Financiers of Kazakhstan
The rate of the dollar could be changed to 350 tenges per dollar, the members of the financial market say.
Following the survey held among the professional members of the financial market, the rate of the dollar to the tenge could be changed to 350 tenges per dollar by the end of August, BNews.kz correspondent reports.
A survey among the members of the financial market was held by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan. It engaged representatives of the bank, insurance, brokering organizations, employees of analytical and treasury structures.
The survey was held in respect of the following six indications based on monthly and annual results: the cost of Brent crude; the cost of the dollar against the Russian ruble; the cost of the dollar against the Kazakhstani tenge; the cost of the Russian ruble against the Kazakhstani tenge; inflation; the basic interest rate of the National Bank of Kazakhstan.
Taking into account the current indications, the respondents expect the strengthening of the tenge (-3.6%), the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar (-5.0%) and the increase of the price for crude (+0.8%), more than 73 dollars per barrel. At the same time, it is expected that the tenge will weaken against the Russian ruble (+1.7%) in respect to the current levels.
In particular, the rate for the currency pair of dollar-tenge is expected at the level of 350.3 tenges per dollar (currently - 363.4), for the pair of dollar-ruble - 64.5 rubles per dollar (currently - 67.9), and for the pair of ruble-tenge, the tenge will weaken to 5.5 tenges prt ruble (currently - 5.4). The cost per barrel of Brent crude, followig the expectations of experts from the Assosiation, is forecasted at the level of 73.4 dollars per barrel (currently - 72.9).
As for the consumer price index, some strengthening of the inflation pressure is observed (0.4%). It is noted that inflaction has equaled 0.1% in July, that is, the expectations of the experts were higher than these of the published official data. In addition, the experts expect inflation at 6.5% by the end of the year, which is close to the high end of the National Bank's target range at 5.7%.
The majority of the participants of the market do not expect the change of the base interest rate (the current level - 9%), which is also connected with the current conditions of the market of hydrocarbon and the situation on the developing markets, including Russia. However, the further decrease of the base interest rate by 25 basic points against the current level (up to 8.75%) is expected on average by the end of 2018. The Assosiation of Financiers of Kazakhstan pays attention to the fact that the standard deviation for a sample of forecasts by the end of the year exceeds the deviation for a sample by the end of the current month by 2-3 times, which means considerable confusion in terms of longer forecasts.